History Channel Highlights Computational Prediction

Posted: November 30, 2008 by admin

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

The History Channel aired a documentary tonight contrasting modern scientific prediction, that is, a systematic approach using computers to crunch mathematical algorithms, with pre-science seers like Nostradamus. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita was the authority interviewed for the program. If you haven’t heard of Bruce, you might want to read up on him.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, lecture Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a professor at New York University, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a political scientist. Bruce studies foreign policy, international relations and nation-building. Bruce believes that computer models of rather abstract systems, like political situations, cultures, warfare dynamics and diplomacy, can best predict the outcome of various scenarios of these systems. Bruce believes important human decisions are best made considering predictions made by software such as his.

Turns out, computer modeling and important insights provided by Game Theory are core paradigms of modern political science departments. As always, simple models don’t need to be run through an actual computer. The one on top of your shoulders may do for some. But the prevailing attitude (and rightfully so) is that the most important decisions, made in politics and other fields, should not be made soley on human feelings and faulty human reasoning. Computer models have the benefit of a systematic approach, assigning weights, accuracy levels and Game Theory tactics that can provide more rational indications than the human mind alone can.